Aryan Bhambu

PhD Candidate in Mathematics
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Specializing in deep learning based modelling for noisy time‑dependent data and decision making. Advancing research in randomized neural architectures, ensemble methods, and uncertainty‑aware predictive modelling.

ML Researcher Time Series Analysis Quantitative Finance Statistical Learning

About me

I am a PhD candidate at IIT Guwahati, with a background in applied mathematics and machine learning, focusing on neural network-based modeling of high-frequency, noisy time-series data for forecasting and decision-making.

Research focus

  • Volatility and risk modelling for financial time series.
  • Forecasting wave-height and load series.
  • Trading rules, portfolio selection, and decision support.
  • Option pricing and hedging under uncertainty.
  • Survival analysis for medical and DeFi risk studies.

Methods & themes

  • Randomized neural networks with non-iterative learning.
  • Advanced deep and ensemble learning frameworks.
  • Heteroscedastic, multi-output, and adaptive modelling.
  • Context-aware, memory-enhanced, and transformer-inspired architectures.
  • Deep reinforcement learning and uncertainty-aware prediction.
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Programming & Tools

Implementation of research ideas as reproducible experiments and scalable code.

Python R C MATLAB LaTeX HPC Dask Parallel Computing
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Applications in Finance

Data‑driven approaches to modelling markets, risk, and trading behaviour.

High Frequency Modelling Volatility Forecasting Portfolio Optimization Stock Trading Option Pricing Decentralized Finance Risk Assessment

Education

Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
PhD · CGPA 8.48 / 10
Ph.D., Department of Mathematics
Jan 2022 – Present · Guwahati, India

Thesis title: Learning Frameworks for time series forecasting and financial decision-making using backpropagation and randomized neural networks.

Supervisors: Prof. Selvaraju Natarajan (Department of Mathematics, IIT Guwahati) and Prof. Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Qatar University).

My doctoral research develops structured learning frameworks for time-series forecasting and sequential decision-making by integrating statistical modelling, randomized neural representations, contextual and memory mechanisms, state-space modelling, and reinforcement learning. The work focuses on volatility and risk forecasting, significant wave-height and load forecasting, portfolio optimization, and multi-stock trading under nonlinear, heteroscedastic, and regime-varying dynamics.

Indian Institute of Technology Mandi
M.Sc. · CGPA 9.03 / 10
M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics
Aug 2019 – Jul 2021 · Mandi, India

Master's thesis: Applications of Deep Learning in Supervised Data Analysis

Advisors: Prof. Manoj Thakur and Prof. Samar Agnihotri

Utilized Convolutional based GANs for image generation; deep networks (FNN, CNN, ResNets) for image classification; and RNN, LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM models for financial forecasting.

Maharaja's College, University of Rajasthan
B.Sc. · 70.89%
B.Sc. Pass Course
Jul 2016 – Jun 2019 · Jaipur, India

Foundational training in mathematics and quantitative sciences.

Award: DST-Inspire Scholar (2016–2021), scholarship for meritorious students in Natural and Basic Sciences.

Research directions

I develop learning frameworks for complex time-dependent data, with emphasis on uncertainty, efficient neural architectures, survival modelling, and decision-making under dynamic environments.

Forecasting

Forecasting under uncertainty

Models for nonlinear, heteroscedastic, and regime-varying sequential data, including volatility, wave-height, and load forecasting.

Learning frameworks

Efficient neural learning

Randomized neural networks, RVFL-type architectures, deep ensembles, contextual mechanisms, and memory-enhanced learning.

Decision systems

Financial AI and decision systems

Learning-based frameworks for portfolio optimization, stock trading, option pricing, hedging, and risk-aware financial decision-making.

Survival modelling

Medical survival analysis

Neural and randomized learning approaches for time-to-event modelling, survival prediction, and uncertainty-aware medical decision support.

Publications

Peer‑reviewed articles & conference papers
2026 Journal article Published
A heteroscedasticity-based extended long short term memory network for volatility forecasting and risk assessment
Koushik Bera, Aryan Bhambu, N. Selvaraju
Applied Soft Computing, 2026, Article 115627.
2026 Journal article Published
Randomized deep Hopfield network with multiple output layers for volatility time series forecasting
Aryan Bhambu, Selvaraju Natarajan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan
Neural Networks, Volume 195, March 2026, Article 108207.
2026 Journal article Published
Deep random vector functional link transformer network with multiple output layers for significant wave height forecasting
Aryan Bhambu, Ruobin Gao, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan, Selvaraju Natarajan
Applied Soft Computing, Volume 186 (Part C), January 2026, Article 114136.
2025 Journal article Published
Heteroscedastic ensemble deep random vector functional link neural network with multiple output layers for high‑frequency volatility forecasting and risk assessment
Aryan Bhambu, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan, Selvaraju Natarajan
Neurocomputing, Volume 638, 14 July 2025, Article 130078.
2025 Journal article Published
High frequency volatility forecasting and risk assessment using neural networks‑based heteroscedasticity model
Aryan Bhambu, Koushik Bera, Selvaraju Natarajan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Volume 149, 1 June 2025, Article 110397.
2025 Workshop / conference Published
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Investor‑Specific Portfolio Optimization: A Volatility‑Guided Asset Selection Approach
Arishi Orra, Aryan Bhambu, Himanshu Choudhary, Manoj Thakur, Selvaraju Natarajan
Advances in Financial AI Workshop, International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) 2025, Singapore, 28 April 2025.
Also available as arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.03760.
2025 Book chapter Published
A Heteroscedastic Neural Network Framework for Volatility Prediction
Koushik Bera, Aryan Bhambu, Prakash Raj, Selvaraju Natarajan
In Optimization and Artificial Intelligent Strategies for Engineering and Management, BS Publications, 2025, pp. 60–67.
2024 Conference paper Published
Dynamic Reinforced Ensemble using Bayesian Optimization for Stock Trading
Arishi Orra, Aryan Bhambu, Himanshu Choudhary, Manoj Thakur
Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF 2024), Brooklyn, NY, 14–17 November 2024, pp. 361–369.
2024 Journal article Published
Recurrent ensemble random vector functional link neural network for financial time series forecasting
Aryan Bhambu, Ruobin Gao, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan
Applied Soft Computing, Volume 161, August 2024, Article 111759.
2023 Conference paper Published
Stock Market Prediction Using Deep Learning Techniques for Short and Long Horizon
Aryan Bhambu
In Soft Computing for Problem Solving, Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 547, Springer, first online 2 March 2023, pp. 121–135.
Preprints (arXiv)
2024 Preprint
Some variation of COBRA in sequential learning setup
Aryan Bhambu, Arabin Kumar Dey
arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.04539, submitted 7 April 2024.
2022 Preprint
Confidence Interval Construction for Multivariate time series using Long Short Term Memory Network
Aryan Bhambu, Arabin Kumar Dey
arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.13915, submitted 25 November 2022.

Academic activities & experience

Tutor
2026 – Present
IIT Guwahati · Coursera B.Sc. Programme
May 2026 – Present
Tutor: DA210 (Time Series Analysis & Forecasting).
Teaching Assistantship
2023 – 2026
IIT Guwahati
Jul 2023 – Mar 2026

Lead Teaching Assistant: DA105 (Linear Algebra); DA210 (Time Series Analysis & Forecasting).

Teaching Assistant: MA101 (Real Analysis and Calculus); MA683 (Statistical Analysis); MA373 (Monte Carlo Simulation); MA374 (Financial Engineering Lab); MA225 (Probability Theory and Random Processes); DA105 (Linear Algebra).

Reviewer
2023 – Present
Elsevier and others
Nov 2023 – Present
Active reviewer for journals including Neurocomputing, Applied Soft Computing, Neural Networks, Pattern Recognition, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Computers & Electrical Engineering, and the International Journal of Cognitive Computing in Engineering.
Secretary, Research Scholars’ Forum (RSF)
2023 – 2025
Department of Mathematics, IIT Guwahati
Aug 2023 – September 2025
Coordinating workshops and seminars, representing research scholars in departmental meetings, and helping shape the academic environment for the PhD community.
Research Intern
2022
MEDSOLU (OPC) Pvt. Ltd.
Summer 2022
Conducted qualitative and quantitative research on real‑time series forecasting for sustainable profit generation by investors, exploring practical deployment of ML‑based forecasting pipelines.
Research Council Member
2020 – 2021
IIT Mandi
Sep 2020 – Jul 2021
Contributed to discussions on R&D programmes and future directions for laboratory and industry‑facing projects in the mathematical sciences.
DST Inspire Intern
2020
IIT Mandi
Spring 2020
Studied theoretical aspects of deep learning and artificial neural networks, and implemented models in Python under the supervision of Dr. Manoj Thakur.

Get in touch

For research collaborations, seminar invitations, reviewing, or academic discussions on time series analysis and financial decision making using deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques, feel free to reach out using the channels below.

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Location

Department of Mathematics
IIT Guwahati – 781039
Assam, India